Look who’s Winning the U.S. Trade War  徳するのは誰?

Hi! Friends. How are things with you? Today, let’s check counties that stand to benefit due to Trade War. When someone turns a loss, someone gain. How interesting World Economics is! What do you think is the best way U.S. should take? I translated the Bloom berg article written by Noah Smith into Japanese.


Third countries such as Vietnam stand to benefit as production leaves China.

Most people seem to think of trade as happening between only two countries. If tariffs reduce U.S. imports from China, many — including President Donald Trump – seem to assume that the affected industries will move production to the U.S. But that’s not how things work, which is why other countries might actually benefit from the U.S.-China trade war.

Trade happens among a large network of countries, and this is even more true in the modern economy of fragmented global supply chains. Economists have long understood that in such a network, some countries could actually benefit from a reduction in trade between others – a phenomenon known as trade diversion. Thus, U.S. tariffs on China are probably helping some third counties, as industries that used to export from China to the U.S. shift their production facilities elsewhere.

One candidate is Vietnam. With a relatively well-educated population, low wages, and government support for industry, Vietnam has many of the that China enjoyed 20 years ago. Foreign direct investment in Vietnam has been increasing steadily for years, as multinational companies shift some of their production out of China to avoid rapidly increasing costs and to diversify their production bases.

Economist Brad Setser at the Council on Foreign Relations believes that the US. China trade war is already accelerating Vietnam’s growth. Although the overall U.S.-China trade deficit hasn’t budged much since the conflict began – imports from China and exports to China have both fallen – the deficit in manufactured goods has shrunk a bit in recent months. And as U.S. imports from China fall, those from Vietnam are skyrocketing.

Attacking Vietnam over trade would be misguided, First of all, launching trade wars against country after country, in the hopes of eventually driving production to U.S. shores, is like playing a game of whack-a-mole. Instead, the government should accept that labor-intensive manufacturing is never coming back to the U.S., ant that manufacturing supremacy can be achieved only through extensive automation – a field in which the U.S. lagsother advanced nations.

Another reason not to crack down on Vietnam, or on other low-wage production bases, is that they really need the business. Countries that are focused on boosting labor-intensive manufacturing, like Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia, tend to be much poorer than China.

In these countries, much of the populace struggles to merely put food on the table and maintain adequate shelter and sanitation. Manufacturing is their best hope for escaping this penury. It provides mass employment, and even more importantly it initiates a process of industrial learning and economic diversification.

By allowing Vietnam and other low-wage manufacturing countries to run trade surpluses, the U.S. reduces risk for those countries’ entrepreneurs, assuring them that there will essentially always be market for their goods. That boosts investment, which is far more powerful of a poverty-reducing force than any foreign aid, development assistance or governmental loans. The U.S. owes the developing world the favor of overlooking their trade surpluses and currency manipulation until their citizens have escaped absolute poverty.

Humanitarian concerns aside, the U.S. also has geopolitical reasons to help build up the economies of Vietnam and other poor Asian countries. Its chief rival in the region, China, has become increasingly assertive in claiming the South China Sea as its own. These claims put China in direct conflict with Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia. Right now, those countries are too economically and technologically weak to resist Chinese encroachment. But if their economies are allowed and encouraged to grow, that may change. By shifting manufacturing activity from China to its Southeast Asian allies and potential allies, the U.S. can blunt Chinese in the region.

So U.S. authorities shouldn’t worry about manufacturing activity moving from China to Vietnam and other low-wage countries. Punishing one country after another in the hope that some low-wage manufacturing jobs will eventually make their way to Ohio or Michigan is a losing game. Instead, the U.S. should focus on high-productivity automated manufacturing, and let Vietnam and the others take the labor-intensive stuff.


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💗💗💗💗💗💗💗💗 日本語 in Japanese 💗💗💗💗💗💗💗💗


みなさま、こんにちは! いかがお過ごしですか? 今日は、米中貿易摩擦で恩恵を受けている国をチェックしてみましょう。世界の経済って面白いですよ! 誰かが損すると、誰かが得するんだなぁ。アメリカが取るべき最善策ってなんだと思います? Noah Smith氏のブルームバーグの記事を日本語に翻訳してみました。













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