How will China-U.S. trade war affect universal currency?

Hello! Everybody! Trade war will affect various kinds of money including Japanese Yen. It is said that Yen might strengthen to avoid risky assets. Who will be the biggest losers? And what should we do? I hear that many Japanese companies is coming back to Japan from China. Let’s read the article in Bloom berg in Japanese.


Currency Strategists Brace for Trade War Worse-Case Scenarios

As U.S.-China trade-war rhetoric escalates without any plan for a resumption of negotiations, currency strategists are mapping out foreign-exchange implications.

Bank of America Corp. sees the Japanese yen strengthening as investors flee risky assets, and has recommended an associated euro-yen trade. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warns that currencies from the euro to South Africa’s rand and Chile’s peso could be in the firing line. And Westpac Banking Corp. sees bonds as a safe bet.

“It’s probably one of the most underappreciated things in this market—this FX question” about the impact of trade tensions, said Thomas Costerg, an economist at Pictet Wealth Management in Geneva.

Some Asian-Pacific exchange rates are already seeing an impact, edging closer to key technical levels as fallout from the trade war spreads. South Korea’s won has lost around 4% against the dollar in the past month, while the Aussie is approaching its January flash-crash low of 67.41 U.S. cents. The Indonesian rupiah has lost almost all its gains for the year.

Biggest Losers

“Taiwan and South Korea have the most to lose if things intensify,” Westpac’s head of FX strategy in New York. The won and Chinese yuan, along with the Taiwan, Australian and Canadian dollars, “are all exposed,” and the euro “would fall pretty dramatically,” he said. For downside protection, he advised shorting these currencies or owning the bonds in their markets.

That said, Fraunlovich reflects the consensus view in markets that the U.S. and China will in the end reach “some kind of deal.”

Over at Bank of America, the currency team last week initiated a three-month put spread that takes a short position on the euro-yen currency pair, with the view that investors will be seeking a haven with no quick U.S.-China deal in the offing.

Almost all the uncertainty and related risks markets were facing as the year started remain, and in some cases got worse,”Athanosios Vamvakidis, BofA’s head of G10 FX strategy, wrote in a note. “all this makes FX estremely challenging. For now, we are taking the view that things can get worse in the short term.”

Japan is still a wealthier country, compared with other countries. When other country’s worth of money goes down, there is a possibility that the number of immigration is increasing in various countries. Japan has racially homogeneous nation for a long time, so, both we and foreigners are required great effort to live together because we grew up in quit different culture. We often hear that there will be a depression. But, in other words, can we say that Japan will be a compact country? When Japan becomes so, we don’t have to look for foreigners who work in Japan instead of Japanese people. I’m sure that compact Japan will come true. Japan shall exist forever even if the population decreases dramatically. Don’t be brainwashed by TV etc!


💗💗💗💗💗💗💗💗 日本語 Japanese 💗💗💗💗💗💗💗💗


みなさま、こんにちは! 米中貿易摩擦は日本の円を含めていろんな通貨に影響しそうです。投資家がリスク資産を避けようとして円が強くなりそうです。最も打撃を受ける敗者は誰何でしょうね。私達はどうしたらいいのでしょう? 日本の会社は中国からどんどん撤退しているようです。ブルームバーグの日本語版は下の方にあります。スクロールしてね。












いくら不景気だと言っても、日本はまだ豊かなほうですから、海外の貨幣価値が下がると生活苦から、いろんな国で、さらに移民が増える可能性があります。日本は長い間、単一民族であったので、違う文化の人々を暮らすにはお互いに相当な努力が必要となるでしょう。「不景気になっていく」という言葉をよく耳にしますが、言い方を換えれば、「コンパクトな国になりつつある」と言えないでしょうか? 国全体がコンパクトになれば、外国からたくさんの労働者を入れなくても済むかもしれません。きっと、コンパクトな国になりますよ。日本が人口減少でつぶれるということはないと思います。テレビ等でマインドコントロールされてはいけません。

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